How to estimate Rt robustly with incomplete tracing in retrospective outbreaks?
#1
I'm a public health analyst working on a retrospective study of a recent localized outbreak, and I'm struggling with the epidemiological modeling. We have good case data but incomplete contact tracing information, making it difficult to accurately estimate the effective reproduction number (Rt) over time. I'm trying to decide between using a more complex compartmental model or a simpler statistical approach given the data gaps. For epidemiologists who have modeled similar real-world outbreaks with imperfect data, what methods have you found most robust for parameter estimation and uncertainty quantification? How do you communicate the limitations of your model's assumptions to policymakers who want definitive answers?
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