How do you decide which upcoming games to buy at launch within a budget?

[Larry8]

I'm trying to plan my gaming budget for the rest of the year and am looking at the list of upcoming games, but I'm having a hard time deciding what's worth a day-one purchase. There's a big fantasy RPG and a sci-fi shooter from a new studio that both look interesting, but I'm wary of hype after being burned by buggy launches before. I usually wait for reviews, but I also enjoy being part of the initial community discussion. How do you all evaluate which upcoming games to commit to early?