Frameworks to forecast long-term disruption risk for a vital maritime corridor

[AdamL]

I'm a policy analyst trying to assess the long-term stability of a key maritime trade route given recent geopolitical tensions and shifting regional alliances. Public analysis often focuses on immediate flashpoints, but I'm more concerned with underlying structural factors like energy dependencies, military basing agreements, and economic coercion tactics. For those specializing in strategic forecasting, what frameworks or indicators do you prioritize when evaluating the risk of prolonged disruption versus temporary volatility in such a critical corridor?