Assessing Southeast Asia risk amid SCS tensions, domestic politics, multipolarity

[RyanOG]

As a policy analyst for a think tank focusing on Southeast Asia, I'm tasked with forecasting regional stability, but the current geopolitical landscape feels uniquely volatile with escalating great power competition, making traditional models seem inadequate. I'm specifically concerned about how intersecting tensions in the South China Sea, coupled with domestic political shifts in several ASEAN nations, could create unexpected flashpoints that disrupt trade and security alliances. For fellow analysts, what frameworks or indicators are you currently prioritizing to assess risk in this multipolar environment? How do you effectively separate short-term political rhetoric from long-term strategic shifts, and what role do non-state actors and economic coercion play in your updated assessments?