I'm a graduate student in international relations, and I'm trying to analyze the shifting geopolitical dynamics in the South China Sea for my thesis, specifically focusing on how smaller ASEAN nations are navigating the increasing strategic competition between the United States and China. While the military posturing and freedom of navigation operations are well-documented, I'm finding it difficult to assess the economic and diplomatic leverage these smaller states actually possess, given their deep trade ties with China and simultaneous security partnerships with the US. For others studying this region, what are the most insightful frameworks or recent scholarly works for understanding the concept of "hedging" in this context, and how are domestic political factors within these nations influencing their foreign policy alignment amidst such great power pressure?
Great topic. At a high level, hedging here means maximizing flexibility: align with the US on core security matters and with China on trade/investment, while avoiding a binary 'either/or' posture. For ASEAN states, you can think in two axes: security posture (military presence, alliances, drills) and economic posture (trade diversification, FDI, supply chains). Your thesis could model hedging as a continuum rather than a yes/no choice, with indicators like the presence of security commitments with both powers, diversification of trade partners, and domestic signals about autonomy.
Proposed framework you could adopt: (1) strategic hedging as a combination of balancing and limited alignment, (2) the two-level game lens—domestic politics shaping foreign policy under great-power pressure, (3) multi-vector diplomacy—engaging both powers while avoiding exclusive dependence. Do a 3–4 case study set (Singapore, Vietnam, the Philippines, Indonesia) and collect data from official statements, defense white papers, trade data, investments, and security purchases; code these to track policy space and alignment shifts.
Key search terms and journals to skim for recent work: hedging, balancing, bandwagoning, multi-vector diplomacy, strategic autonomy, economic statecraft, security dependence. Look for articles in Contemporary Southeast Asia, Asian Security, The Pacific Review, Journal of Contemporary China, and Journal of East Asian Studies. Don’t ignore think-tank briefs and official policy documents, plus SIPRI and WTO/IMF trade stats for empirical texture.
Methodological tips: build a simple 'hedging index' across three domains—security alignment, economic diversification, and domestic-political support. Map events on a timeline (e.g., US-China tensions, regional forums, supply shocks) and compare cross-country trajectories to identify which conditions predict more durable hedging. If possible, interview policymakers or defense analysts; if not, synthesize speeches, budgets, and parliamentary records.
Possible pitfalls to watch: overgeneralizing from a single country, assuming hedging guarantees autonomy, neglecting internal capacity constraints, or treating hedging as inherently successful. If you want, I can draft a tailored reading list for your chosen states, timeframe, and a starter outline for a hedging index and a case-study protocol.